The Next Recession May Come By StealthMarkets have been blowing hot and cold regarding the prospects of a recession in the U.S. The Institute of Supply Management’s November survey shows that the index of factory activities in the U.S. fell to 48.1 from 48.3 in October (any reading below 50 is indicative of a contraction). This is confounding the expectation that America’s domestic industrial production would improve in anticipation of a “deal” in the U.S.-China trade war. However, the Department of Labor also reported that 266,000 jobs have been added to the economy in November, bringing unemployment rate down to a historic low of 3.5%. A confusing situation has just been made more confusing. It has been said that generals are always fighting the last war. It’s not that different when it comes to fighting economic downturns. Since the global financial crisis a decade ago, we have been scouring the horizon for any signs of financial fragility, such as asset bubbles, that could plunge us into the next global recession. Despite mounting evidence of a weakening economy, there are no asset bubbles comparable to that of the pre-2008 period. And we won’t find any, even as we edge closer to the next recession. Since the last global financial crisis, the global economy has been reshaped by different forces, and the coming recession will be caused by factors totally different from those of the last one. First off, the global economy today is mired in uncertainty arising from the trade war, an enfeebled Europe, Brexit and rising geopolitical tensions. An even deeper source of uncertainty is that the liberal global economic order, in place since the 1950s, is dying. Two trends are converging to kill it. The first is the West’s declining economic dominance relative to the rest of the world, and China in particular. The second is the rise of populism in Western democracies, arguably the most serious challenge to the legitimacy of the liberal global order. And yet, even as the liberal global economic order fades away, it’s unclear what a post-liberal global economic order will look like. So for now, the global economy is like a barfly at closing time: it has no clue where it’s going, but it can’t stay here. Developed world economies have meanwhile been seriously weakened by prolonged zero interest rates, making them vulnerable to unexpected shocks. Extraordinarily low interest rates distort the price of money, arguably the single most important price signal in a market economy. They poison the business environment, allowing poorly run businesses to survive, jamming the gears of creative destruction that drive any economic renewal. The survival of poorly run businesses also suck profits from more successful businesses, sapping their ability to expand. Against this backdrop, any number of missteps could trigger chain reactions that push developed world economies into recession. But we should also be prepared for a potentially different kind of downturn. The accepted definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of contraction in an economy.…
Planning for a trip to Jaipur? If ‘yes’ then here is a list of few things to do when you are on Jaipur Tour. Just book a Rajasthan Tour Package from Royal Adventure Tours.
Cycling at Historical Sites and Parks Of Jaipur
Jaipur is pretty famous throughout the world. In fact, this is one of the world’s best tourist destinations. Are you wondering what is so special about this place? With sky high forts and more than 100 parks in the city it looks really beautiful. From cycling to hiking you can try everything here. Golf Park is also a great spot for playing Golf. Go for cycling at the tall mountain peaks and visit the forts and relive the history, with your loved ones and you will definitely love the experience.
Shopping at The old Jaipur: Walled City
Go for shopping with your friends or family members to the old Jaipur. You will find so many shops and markets with different names in the walled city. No doubt, you will definitely get surprised on looking at the markets and the handmade products available here.
Names of eminent markets are Kishanpole, Johri Bazar, Bapu Bazar, Jayanti Market etc. Buy some gifts for your family members and relatives here and give them a surprise after returning back to your home. This will definitely make them feel very happy.
The walled city still takes us back to the ancient times and all the architecture there is the same as earlier. To visit the beautiful old Jaipur book Jaipur Tour Packages.
Take a food tour
Jaipur is also pretty famous for delicious food. There are so many restaurants in Jaipur which you could actually visit with your loved ones to enjoy the world’s best food. If you don’t have any idea about the restaurants and street food stalls in Jaipur then it is better to take a food tour.
Don’t know how to book a Jaipur food tour? Don’t worry! It is very easy now. Choose a Rajasthan tourism package with Royal Adventure tours and leave the rest on us. Don’t worry about your budget as we offer food tours Jaipur at an attractive price.
You’ve been daydreaming about it for months: blue skies, white sand and as many umbrella drinks as your stomach can hold. Before you jet off to the tropics, however, there are a few preparations that you can make to ensure the best possible trip. Here are three tips for a great time on the beach!
bald head island rentals
1. Scout Your Location Where are you going? Where can you lodge for the duration of your stay? How much will it cost? Is the currency different? What about transportation to get around the local shops and restaurants? These are all important questions to ask before you book your ticket, especially if you plan on vacationing somewhere with a high level of tourism. You don’t want to go when the crowds are thick and the prices are high. Schedule your trip for a different time.
2. Mind the Weather This is especially important when you’re planning a beach vacation. Don’t arrive during monsoon season! You’ll want sunny days and mild temperatures, so look up the average climate during the months when you want to travel. It might be better if you take your trip during late spring or early autumn rather than the height of summer. Again, however, watch out for rainy seasons if you’re traveling overseas. They can really put a damper on a beach trip.
3. Pack Appropriately You might think that you only need a bathing suit and a pair of flip-flops, but the truth is that every destination is different. The bugs might be stronger in some locations than others, for example, so you might need long sleeves to protect you when the sun goes down. Or maybe there are cultural expectations where you’re going that will necessitate different clothes. You won’t know until you do your homework. These are just a few tips for planning a beach vacation. It doesn’t matter whether you’re looking at Jamaican resorts or Bald Head Island rentals; the most important thing is that you’re being smart and careful about your choices. You can relax when you actually arrive at your destination. Until then, be prepared.…
You wish to visit Moldova or already are here and you’re not extremely familiar with it? Then there is a certain trap that you might fall into as a tourist. This country isn’t exactly flashy and it can seem that there is nothing to do here, however this is not exactly true. It has a rich culture and many great things to show, that are waiting to be discovered. Finding them involves a fair amount of drives, so you have to be up for it, and if you are, then you’ll certainly be rewarded.
The first places that might interest you are the orthodox churches and monasteries. The most well-known of them, starting with the closest to the furthest ones from the capital, are: Căpriana, Hâncu, Curchi, Noul Neamț, Țîpova, Saharna. Dating since 15th century and even earlier, they are high value attraction points for people that wish to meditate and admire the splendid architecture.
While in Orhei, it is also a must visiting the Old City – Orheiul Vechi. Here, you can find easily the most incredible view in the country and many other old structures.
The next places on the list are what Moldova is known for… and Moldova is known for its wine.
The Cricova and Mileștii Mici wineries are the most well-known ones and they offer fairly cheap and very engaging tours. Since both of them are very close to Chisinau, having a trip through the underground mazes full of old wine is a must.
While at it, why not give some cognac a try? In Tiraspol, the Kvint factory can show you how it’s produced and offer some high-quality drinks.
While in the capital, you must visit as many restaurants as possible and there is a huge variety of them. The living expenses in Moldova are very low and the food is cheap as well. And not only that it’s cheap, but it is also extremely good. Agriculture is what people have been doing here for ages, so every possible ingredient is natural and has a rich flavor. No matter which cuisine you prefer, it is simple to find the right place and enjoy yourself. Don’t forget about the national food as it will also not let you down in the slightest.
If you prefer a quieter atmosphere, the Dendrariu Park and Grădina Botanică are great places to relax.
As it was mentioned above, living in Chisinau is not going to be a strain on your budget. This is why, you can allow yourself a fair degree of luxury. Find a great hotel in Moldova and fully enjoy your stay, without holding back. Since this is also an important part of the experience, choose a place to stay where you can truly feel comfortable.…
The holiday season is the most awaited season for the children and the workers. Parents need to plan some exciting activities for the children to keep them refresh and alive. Breathing the fresh air, looking at the greenery and playing water in the clear river may already hard to do for the kids nowadays. But that doesn’t mean it is impossible to invite the kids to be closer to nature. A glamorous camping could be one of the choices. You can invite the children to enjoy a vacation in nature, without leaving the comfortable amenities and also the luxury just like staying in the star hotels. Although camping is identical to the cold air and needs many preparations, camping actually has a variety of benefits that good for your children. You can try the campsites near St Malo to get a new exciting experience.
Raise The Confidence
This outdoor activity can make the children become more confident. Every child has different personalities, some are quiet and there are also bold. If you happened to have children that shy and quiet, try to bring your children to the camping sites. The parents can introduce the new environment to the children. They will grow curiosity, learn the new knowledge, and learn to be more confident.
Away From Gadgets
Actively taking part in the outdoors will make the children accustomed away from gadgets and technology. Invite children to go on a camping will keep them away from the gadgets and the unnecessary technology. Only carry the necessary gadgets. You can bring a camera and just let the children enjoy their time at the camping sites.
Teach The Children To Learn To Socialize
By meeting new people while camping, the children will automatically learn to know new things and socialize with new people. Take your children for a walk and get acquainted with the other people so that the children can get used to communicating with other people.
Camping Can Reduce The Stress
Give your children time to share stories and do fun things like singing along or see the landscapes so that the children become calmer and refresh again. Don’t force your children to tell stories about the difficulty so that children don’t feel burdened.
Are you planning a conference and looking for a corporate venue? The last thing you want is to throw a boring event that will end up wasting your time and your guest’s as well. These 10 tips will ensure that everything works on a timely basis at the meeting.
1.Have planned outcomes
Your conference must have a planned outcome or success. Lay down what needs to be accomplished in advance, for instance, budget approval or a major decision that needs to be made. This will avoid time wasting.
2.Set the agenda in advance
Imagine choosing a great Venue for hire in Auckland but forget to come up with an agenda for the meeting. How can you ensure that every attendee stays on the same page? The agenda should have the objectives of the conference. The agenda should be very clear and if it can be achieved by other means besides a meeting, then there is no need for holding the meeting. It is important that you send the agenda beforehand so that the attendees can plan for questions, prepare the necessary materials, and come up with viable solutions as early as they can.
3.Create a deadline for submissions
The necessary materials must be submitted as early as possible. Late submissions will create hiccups and the meeting might be delayed.
4.Make use of PowerPoint
Take advantage of this technology that makes demonstrations much easier. Encourage the presenters to create as many slides as possible. You can even reward the best presenters. People understand information better when it is presented in visual aids. It is imperative that a few presenters undertake critical steps of analyzing how their work-related generally to other practices. Advice them to highlight their achievements but they don’t need to cover particular implications of their work.
5.Use the lecture format
The speakers should take more time in relaying information but less time for questions and suggestions from the audience. This helps to keep the discussion on the right track. In the present day of advanced technology, the lecture format is an effective teaching mode and prevents wastage of resources.
6.Have a moderator
A conference moderator can assist in putting an end to meaningless, repetitive, and lengthy speeches or debates. Pick one of the delegates to control the meeting so that the group can stay on top of the agenda and any unproductive behavior is curtailed. A professional moderator knows how to cut off an attendee with too much information and give a chance to another person with a more sensible point of view. Note that the best ideas don’t always come from the loudest participant. There is a need to give chances to even the shy people in the group. A moderator also guides the attendees in brainstorming and makes them get on track when the discussion stalls. This ensures that the meeting ends on time.
7.Invite only the important people
Have you ever been to a crowded meeting where almost everyone wants to talk and decision making becomes …
Today, the majority of event planners learn by apprenticeship and not the formal way. Sometimes, the self-taught individuals are skeptical of their capabilities until they see other people emulating them. For those who take formal courses on event management in Auckland, there are 5 principles they are taught to master.
If you have no idea of where you are coming hood, chances are you don’t know where you are headed to. As an event planner, evaluate the event and think about what needs to be improved. You should have as part of your planning gear a book and a pen. It seems cumbersome but writing down the things that need attention is critical to success. Evaluate the venue and know the weak links so you can mend them before time erupts. You want to know how to make your client happy, so make sure you note each and every one of their needs. That means you have to schedule pre-event meetings to bring together as many stakeholders as you can. Make use of surveys to find inspirations especially from your client.
2.Knowing the audience
Knowing the reason you are planning an event is paramount. What type of client are you dealing with and what kind of attendees is expected? The audience has a way of telling right away if you plan an inappropriate event. Their mood and cooperation will tell it all. Some events are for entertainment; others for education, championship, engagement, or celebrations. So you should always know what kind of audience to expect.
The success of event management depends on planning. As an event planner, you must understand each and every aspect of the event from timelines, goals, and tasks. Planning entails more than just creating a to-do list; it is about creating a meticulous timeline of events, simple schedules, a list of responsibilities, and how every plan is related to the others. A detailed plan is like a map; it leads you to the correct destination.
4.Benefit of doubt
You can trust someone else’s expertise only if you verify. For instance, the vendors will improve your customer experience. At some point, a vendor might want a deposit but you need to be sure that they will deliver nothing short of quality supplies. You should ask for references, photos as evidence, and check the customer reviews if the vendors have a website page. If a vendor fails to cooperate especially when you ask for a reference, just find another one who you can trust.
Something unexpected is always bound to happen during an event. A great event planner expects this and puts contingency plans in place. Such scenarios as power outage must be planned for in advance and a budget put in place. Sometimes the guests might need more tents and other equipment which were not in the initial plan. For such pop-up issues, it is important to have a clear protocol on how to handle the situation.
Every event differs in …
There are many reasons why one would need to rent a car during the holidays. When company comes to town, when there are more family members who need to get around than cars to carry them, or in the case of an unfortunate accident, you need a rental. And then, there are times when you just need to put more miles between you and your current situation than your lease allows. What ever drives you to point and click your way through the many options out there for car rental, stop by the Groupon site and grab a link for Enterprise first. Once you see all the ways they can help you out of a tight space, you’ll stop your search right there and make your reservation. And when you do, you’ll join millions of drivers who’ve turned to Enterprise because they provide a fleet with a wide selection of the latest styles and best rates in the industry. And you’ll find that you can save a substantial amount off the price of your rental when you apply one of the money saving codes provided by Groupon.
Over the next few weeks, there’s no telling how many events you’ll be invited to attend. So it’s good to know that Enterprise has a car that will fit every scenario. If you’ve been invited to the office party at the boss’s country estate, you might want to up the ante and rent a luxury vehicle. If you’re showing the family the sights around town, a van might work best, especially since you can use it later to pick up the Christmas tree and any oversized luggage or gifts. And if you need to move one of the kids back home from college, you can always rent a truck to handle that load.
There are as many reasons to rent a car or truck from Enterprise as there are vehicles. And they will pick you up, so you don’t have to leave your own car on their lot. Don’t let a need for transportation put your plans on hold this season. Be ready to bring home Christmas presents by the truckload, or relatives by the carload with Enterprise Rent a Car.…
For years, I told my spouse that it is imperative that we get a chance to go overseas for a vacation. He promised me we would, but decades passed and it was not happening. Then, on our 35th anniversary, he randomly mentoned we should explore Tuscany in tour together. I looked up from my book and said, “Yeah, right. That won’t happen.” and then I continued to read my book again. As I read through a few more pages, a slip of paper fell out of the book. I didn’t remember putting the paper therem, so I opened it. Inside, it said, “Happy Anniversary! We are going on a tour of Tuscany together!” I was dumbfounded. He had remembered after all the years of me wishing for it!
My husband has never been the romantic type. I always thought that I would be married to someone who is that way. My dad always did his best to romance my mom.…